The Hockey Blogosphere is a fantastic location. It is filled with smart, creative and curious folks that are doing what they could to similarly our understanding of the game, who are the usage of mathematical tools, play-by using-play and monitoring information, and firsthand reporting to study vintage things in new approaches.
There also are folks that are there to own anyone online. This, I can let you know from experience, is mannerless complicated and extra amusing. You take the stats you need, and you…Massage them a touch bit till presto; your narrative is performed, your enemies lay prostrate earlier than you, and also you do a victory lap.
But how, you can ask, can you turn robust numbers into the smooth clay from which your Tweets can be moulded? Let’s explore!
If you’ve spent a while around nerds (gross), you could have heard them move on and on approximately something called “sample size.” Sample length, in records, is the idea of getting enough time or examples so that the results you degree emerge as meaningful and informative. It is your enemy.
Last season Justin Holl led the Leafs in CF% and scored at an intention per game tempo. That’s wonderful! This yr Justin Holl is middling in CF% and is scoring at a 0 games consistent with infinity pace. That’s now not remarkable! And it’s not going to assist as a great deal in organising why Babcock is a fool for not playing a 27-12 months-antique AHLer. See how a whole lot extra amusing it changed into when we merely talked about the yr where he played two video games?
The more magnificent superior manner of doing that is by using rate stats like goals in keeping with 60 minutes. These are flawlessly excellent numbers, but they’re particularly top for one component: finding a guy you like at the fourth line who’s on a taking pictures heater. The pinnacle Leaf forward in goals in step with 60 at 5v5 this yr is Nic Petan. Pick a person you don’t like and replace that participant on your thoughts with Nic Petan. That feels better.
Endpoints, Choose Your Endpoints
Thanks to Katya I always pay attention this word to the song of the Flintstones subject track. Endpoints, choose your parameters/they’re the clean way to make your case!
Stats over an extended period have an annoying way of searching “ordinary” or “reasonable.” This is inconvenient. However, you can work around it. Look on the Game Log on NHL.Com for a participant. If you want him, return to the closing time he had a multi-factor game. If you don’t like him, move returned to the game after that. Then triumphantly/ominously say the participant is warm or bloodless. Make up a reason for it if you want approximately linemates or secret accidents or anything, or don’t. The numbers, they don’t lie!
Finding The Stat That’s Right For You
Who is aware of the distinction between Corsi and Fenwick? Trick query, it doesn’t count. Which is the quality play riding metric among Evolving Wild’s RAPM, and Micah McCurdy’s Isolated Threat? Trick question, it also does no longer matter.
Some human beings will attempt to inform you matters approximately the strengths and weaknesses of these numbers. However, that’s now not important: the crucial element in which one tells you things you like. If more than a few say the players you want are right, it is ideal and must be quoted as lengthy because it does that. You can do this with Corsi or Fenwick, dreams or assists or number one factors, at 5v5 or all conditions, adjusted or not adjusted…The possibilities are endless. It’s just like the idea of infinite universes. In this kind of worlds, you get to be proper about any given element.
If everyone asks you why you used one stat and now not the opposite, say “it’s extra predictive.” ninety% of the time, humans will now not assignment you in this.
Context Is For Suckers
An amusing issue to do, while discussing contracts, is to examine them to Nathan MacKinnon’s agreement. “Well,” you’ll say disdainfully, “how can [guy you don’t like, probably William Nylander] be valuable? Nathan MacKinnon has 194 points the remaining seasons, and the handiest makes $6.3M a season!”
Well, you might say, become he doing that earlier than the settlement turned into si—